Thousands of companies are celebrating a major legal victory after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down broad emergency tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump. However, while the ruling could unlock billions in refunds, the process of recovering that money is expected to be slow and complex, according to Reuters.
In its decision, the court ruled that Trump could not rely on the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping tariffs on imports. Economists at the Penn-Wharton Budget Model estimate that more than $175 billion in collected duties could now be eligible for refund.
Financial markets reacted positively. Stocks in the United States and Europe rose following the ruling, including shares of luxury giants such as LVMH, Hermes and Moncler, which had been affected by the trade measures.
Refund process expected to be lengthy and complicated
Although the ruling applies broadly, businesses must now decide whether to pursue refunds through the U.S. Court of International Trade, which oversees tariff and customs disputes.
More than 1,800 tariff-related lawsuits have been filed since April, a sharp increase compared with fewer than two dozen in all of 2024. Plaintiffs include subsidiaries of Toyota Group, Costco, Goodyear, Alcoa, Kawasaki Motors and EssilorLuxottica, among others.
Lawyers say companies that filed early may receive refunds sooner. Still, the process will require detailed documentation of import data across different time frames and tariff regimes. Even large multinational corporations may struggle to consolidate the necessary records.
“It’s not as if on Monday, companies are going to start getting checks in the mail,” said Nabeel Yousef, a partner at Freshfields.
Some businesses have already chosen to sell their rights to potential refunds to outside investors. In exchange for upfront payments — typically 25 to 30 cents on the dollar — companies agree to give investors the full value of any eventual refund.
Despite the court’s decision, tariffs continue to weigh on consumers. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently estimated that 90% of Trump-era tariffs are borne by American consumers and businesses, challenging the White House’s argument that foreign producers absorb the costs. As of November, the effective U.S. tariff rate stood at 11.7%, compared with an average of 2.7% between 2022 and 2024, according to the Yale Budget Lab.
Uncertainty also remains. Trump officials have indicated they may use other statutory authorities to impose tariffs, including measures tied to national security or unfair trade practices. For example, 25% tariffs on vehicles imported from Mexico and Canada remain in place under separate legal grounds.
Industry groups warn that the ruling does not eliminate trade unpredictability. “It’s not like tariffs are going away. They’re just going to be under a different umbrella,” said Ted Murphy of Sidley Austin.
For now, businesses face a complicated path forward. While the Supreme Court’s decision represents a significant legal win, the practical recovery of funds could stretch for months or even years — and there is little indication that consumer prices will quickly decline as a result.
